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The past seemed less complicated. Match number four of the Scottish and New Zealand teams. A heaving Murrayfield, a 0-0 draw, January 1964. Celebration when the whistle blew. Fans flooding the field to reflect the historic accomplishment by Scotland.

Having beaten Ireland, Wales and England, New Zealand had finally been halted in a international match.

The man from Pathe News almost blew a gasket. "A game that no-one who saw it will ever forget," he announced excitedly and somewhat optimistically. "Where Scottish rugby preserved British pride."

Leaving the stadium that evening, Scottish fans would have had optimism about what was to come. Four attempts at beating New Zealand and no wins, but clear signs that maybe one was not far off.

Three years later, the All Blacks defeated Scotland. Half a decade later, history repeated itself. Three years further on, identical outcome. Five more years went by and, indeed, the pattern continued.

Recent History

Two decades of matches later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. From Christchurch to Dunedin, Auckland to Cardiff - the landscapes have changed but not the outcomes.

During his tenure, Gregor Townsend has broken winless streaks in Paris, Cardiff and Twickenham, but this is another level. This is 32 games across 120 years. Among rugby's most persistent curses.

Team News

In recent years the comprehensive defeats have reduced to eight points, five points and eight points in recent encounters, but New Zealand consistently prevail.

Via their excellence, their power, game management, they get the job done.

As match day approaches where the optimism that supporters maintained for a Scottish win is probably beginning to fade. Hope is colliding with history.

Missing Players

Thursday brought news that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. To Scottish ambitions it was like a kick in the guts.

The prop has been absent since spring, but he's exceptional and had he been declared fit then the long gap without a game would not have been a massive concern.

During modern rugby long before the hour-mark, his endurance stands out. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the Six Nations.

Replacement Concerns

Another absence is Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with his club. There's no such quality replacing big Zander. While Rae is capable, his international experience consists of 73 minutes stretched across six years.

And when Rae is finished, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, evidence is lacking that he can match New Zealand's standard.

Coaching Choices

The coach has made unexpected selections, some logical, some puzzling. Steyn's tactical awareness replaces Duhan van der Merwe's more one-dimensional power.

The flanker selection is unconventional, with Darge among substitutes. Onyeama-Christie's omission is notable.

Past Encounters

Against Ireland, New Zealand won the opening match of what they hope will be an undefeated tour. They took an age to get going, despite numerical advantage, but their last-quarter demolition did the trick.

That and Ireland's defensive shape, their attack, their line-out and their scrum collapsing.

Statistical Analysis

For all that their blasts at the end, the last 20 minutes is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. In all of their Tests going back three years, they've scored 87 tries in the first half and fewer after halftime.

They've scored 39 in the first quarter, excellent second quarters, 26 in the third and solid finishes. They start aggressively.

What Scotland Needs

Against Scotland in 2022, they struck twice in the initial stages. Leading 14-0, the game looked done. Scotland fought back impressively to hit them with 23 unanswered points.

The clear message is that, figuratively speaking, Scotland must put the boot on the throat from the start - and keep it there.

In recent years, the teams that have managed to beat New Zealand have needed to score in the upper twenties. Scottish scoring only twice in their past 13 games against the All Blacks.

Conclusion

Everything has to go right for Townsend's team. Absolutely everything. Wasted opportunities then forget it. Disciplinary issues? Repeated infringements? A battered scrum? The game is lost.

But what if everything does go right? A blistering beginning. Vocal support. Electric atmosphere. Clinical finishing. Russell being Russell. Graham being Graham.

Fantasy rugby, perhaps. We haven't seen an 80 minutes from the Scottish team that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If it's in there, it's about time it came out; 120 years is enough of a wait.